Thursday afternoon, Microsoft's
online store displayed "Out of stock" and refused to accept orders for that
configuration. The message remained in place Friday. On Saturday, the website
said you can order now for shipment by March 1.
The
new shortage makes Microsoft's blog post of Feb. 15 seem prescient. Then, as the
company announced it would start taking orders for the 128GB Surface Pro, it
warned customers that, "Once inventory is depleted, the system will show as 'out
of stock' until new inventory is available to ship."
That's
exactly what it did.
The
Surface Pro has had an up-down-up-down history, brief as it's been.
Microsoft
started selling the 128GB Surface Pro on Feb. 9 for $999, but within
hours supplies dried up. Customers were furious, frustrated at coming up empty
in their searches for the tablet, and took it out on Microsoft in scathing
comments on the company's own blog and others.
A
week ago, Microsoft reopened online ordering, telling customers that their
tablet would ship on or before March 1. Rather than simply extend that shipping
date into the future as supplied dwindled -- a practice most other vendors,
including Apple, take when orders exceed demand -- Microsoft shut down orders
completely.
The
$899 64GB Surface Pro, which has been derided by some for having only about 30GB
of storage space for customer content and apps, has remained available
throughout the sell-outs of its sibling.
The
on-again, off-again 128GB Surface Pro availability shows that Microsoft
seriously underestimated demand for the tablet-becomes-an-ultrabook, said Ezra
Gottheil, an analyst with Technology Business Research.
"It's
beginning to look like this isn't a problem with building up enough inventory
for the launch, but that Microsoft underestimated demand," said Gottheil,
countering those who two weeks ago accused Microsoft of a marketing gimmick by
purposefully holding back the tablet.
Instead,
Gottheil traced the supply snafu to Microsoft's change in Surface strategy last
year.
"Surface
was first to be an inspiration to the OEMs, a marketing device to increase
awareness of Windows 8, a challenge to the OEMs to come up with better designs,"
said Gottheil, echoing pundits' takes of mid-2012 when Microsoft surprised the
technology industry with tablets of its own design that it would sell
itself.
"That
made perfect sense then, and didn't bother OEMs too much," Gottheil continued.
"I'd also argue that Microsoft succeeded at that. It has been able to increase
awareness of Windows tablets, and been able to define Windows 8 tablets as a
different breed of cat.
"But
somewhere along the line, their emphasis shifted," Gottheil said, of Microsoft.
"They started saying, 'We're a device company,' they broadened distribution,
they launched a large marketing campaign to make the Surface the thing you want
to buy."
Microsoft
CEO Steve Ballmer's contention in his annual letter to shareholders last October
that, "We see ourselves as a devices and services company," was the first public
pronouncement of the shift in strategy.
In
Gottheil's scenario, Microsoft's expectations for the Surface under that first
strategy were necessarily low, and it placed orders accordingly. "They scoped
out much lower component orders," Gottheil speculated, of Microsoft's doings
last year.
The
current shortages, then, are a result of plotting out one path, then changing
directions after the initial ramp-up for the tablet was set in stone with
suppliers.
And
it may take some time for Microsoft to balance supply and demand, Gottheil
warned. Touchscreens are tight for most device makers -- Apple seems to be one
of the few OEMs to be immune, likely because of its longer history sourcing
components for its iPad line -- and it's possible Microsoft will have trouble
upping production of the Surface because of that.
"Microsoft
just didn't get a chair at the touchscreen table early enough," said
Gottheil.
Analysts
and vendors expect that touchscreen inventories will climb in the second half of
this year as more production comes on line to meet demand by traditional PC
notebook makers, part of which was sparked by Windows 8, part, said Gottheil,
due to an increasing familiarity with touch on tablets and an expectation that
the same functionality should be on laptops.
"I
don't think that many [vendors] expected people to want touchscreens on
old-style PCs," said Gottheil.
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